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Lublinianka vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lublinianka
Lublinianka
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
10/29/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Stadion Lublinianki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lublinianka27%
×Draw24%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lublinianka
1.25
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.75

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 104 away

creates per match

Lublinianka
0.94
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.39

allows per match

Lublinianka
2.12
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.57

finishing

Lublinianka+0.00on par
Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lublinianka ↓

Podlasie Biała Podlaska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lublinianka or draw
51%
Lublinianka or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
76%
Draw or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
73%

Winning margin

Lublinianka wins by 2+
11%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Lublinianka 1+ goals
71%
Lublinianka 2+ goals
36%
Lublinianka 3+ goals
13%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
83%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
52%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Lublinianka (draw refunded)
36%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lublinianka at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lublinianka attack 0.94 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.39 + Lublinianka defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lublinianka scores more
27%
level
24%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
49%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lublinianka vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Podlasie Biała Podlaska beat Lublinianka 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lublinianki in Lublin.