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Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Lewart — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
FT
0 – 1
Lewart
Lewart
5/15/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 35Boisko na obiektach Państwowej Szkoły Wyższej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska53%
×Draw23%
Lewart24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.81
Lewart
1.13

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 60% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 37 away

creates per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.74
Lewart
0.95

allows per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.30
Lewart
1.89

finishing

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par
Lewart+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlasie Biała Podlaska ↓

Lewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw
76%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska or Lewart
77%
Draw or Lewart
47%

Winning margin

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
30%
Lewart wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
84%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
54%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
27%
Lewart 1+ goals
68%
Lewart 2+ goals
31%
Lewart 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
69%
Lewart (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Lewart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.74 + Lewart defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.81

Lewart attack 0.95 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
53%
level
23%
Lewart scores more
24%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Lewart

Lewart beat Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Boisko na obiektach Państwowej Szkoły Wyższej in Biała Podlaska.