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Lewart vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lewart
Lewart
FT
2 – 0
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
10/10/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lewart33%
×Draw25%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewart
1.35
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.54

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 14% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 104 away

creates per match

Lewart
1.14
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.39

allows per match

Lewart
1.70
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.57

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par
Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Podlasie Biała Podlaska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lewart or draw
58%
Lewart or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
75%
Draw or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
67%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+
15%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals
74%
Lewart 2+ goals
39%
Lewart 3+ goals
15%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
79%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
45%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)
44%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.39 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lewart scores more
33%
level
25%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
42%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Lewart 2–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Lewart beat Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie in Lubartów.