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Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs KSZO 1929 — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
FT
1 – 0
KSZO 1929
KSZO 1929
3/16/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska42%
×Draw25%
KSZO 192933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.51
KSZO 1929
1.33

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 14% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 105 away

creates per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.74
KSZO 1929
1.36

allows per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.30
KSZO 1929
1.28

finishing

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par
KSZO 1929+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlasie Biała Podlaska ↓

KSZO 1929 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw
67%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska or KSZO 1929
75%
Draw or KSZO 1929
58%

Winning margin

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
20%
KSZO 1929 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
78%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
44%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
19%
KSZO 1929 1+ goals
74%
KSZO 1929 2+ goals
38%
KSZO 1929 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
55%
KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

KSZO 1929 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.74 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.51

KSZO 1929 attack 1.36 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
42%
level
25%
KSZO 1929 scores more
33%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1–0 KSZO 1929

Podlasie Biała Podlaska beat KSZO 1929 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Biała Podlaska.