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KSZO 1929 vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

KSZO 1929
KSZO 1929
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
4/3/2026III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group IV - 25Miejski Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

KSZO 192949%
×Draw24%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KSZO 1929
1.69
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.20

KSZO 1929 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 104 away

creates per match

KSZO 1929
1.81
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.39

allows per match

KSZO 1929
1.01
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.57

finishing

KSZO 1929+0.00on par
Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KSZO 1929 ↓

Podlasie Biała Podlaska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

KSZO 1929 or draw
73%
KSZO 1929 or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
76%
Draw or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
51%

Winning margin

KSZO 1929 wins by 2+
26%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

KSZO 1929 1+ goals
82%
KSZO 1929 2+ goals
50%
KSZO 1929 3+ goals
24%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
70%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
34%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)
64%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KSZO 1929 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KSZO 1929 attack 1.81 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.39 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

KSZO 1929 scores more
49%
level
24%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
27%

KSZO 1929 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KSZO 1929 vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska

KSZO 1929 beat Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 3, 2026.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Sportowy.