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Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Karpaty Krosno — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
FT
4 – 1
Karpaty Krosno
Karpaty Krosno
10/21/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska60%
×Draw21%
Karpaty Krosno20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
2.10
Karpaty Krosno
1.12

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 88% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 17 away

creates per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.74
Karpaty Krosno
0.94

allows per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.30
Karpaty Krosno
2.47

finishing

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par
Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlasie Biała Podlaska ↓

Karpaty Krosno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw
80%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska or Karpaty Krosno
79%
Draw or Karpaty Krosno
40%

Winning margin

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
37%
Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
88%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
62%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
35%
Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals
67%
Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals
31%
Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
75%
Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Karpaty Krosno away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.74 + Karpaty Krosno defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.10

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.94 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
60%
level
21%
Karpaty Krosno scores more
20%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Karpaty Krosno

Podlasie Biała Podlaska beat Karpaty Krosno 4-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Biała Podlaska.