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Karpaty Krosno vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Karpaty Krosno
Karpaty Krosno
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
5/15/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karpaty Krosno29%
×Draw26%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty Krosno
1.08
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.43

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 104 away

creates per match

Karpaty Krosno
0.59
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.39

allows per match

Karpaty Krosno
1.47
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.57

finishing

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par
Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Krosno ↓

Podlasie Biała Podlaska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Karpaty Krosno or draw
55%
Karpaty Krosno or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
74%
Draw or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
71%

Winning margin

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+
11%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals
66%
Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals
29%
Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals
10%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
76%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
42%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)
39%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Krosno at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.59 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.08

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.39 + Karpaty Krosno defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Karpaty Krosno scores more
29%
level
26%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
45%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karpaty Krosno vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Podlasie Biała Podlaska beat Karpaty Krosno 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Krosno.