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Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Jutrzenka Giebułtów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
FT
0 – 2
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
9/9/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Boisko na obiektach Państwowej Szkoły Wyższej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska61%
×Draw20%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
2.17
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.10

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 97% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 20 away

creates per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.74
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
0.90

allows per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.30
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.60

finishing

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par
Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlasie Biała Podlaska ↓

Jutrzenka Giebułtów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw
82%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
80%
Draw or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
39%

Winning margin

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
38%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
89%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
64%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
36%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
67%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
30%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
77%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.74 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.17

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 0.90 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
61%
level
20%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
18%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 0–2 Jutrzenka Giebułtów

Jutrzenka Giebułtów beat Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Boisko na obiektach Państwowej Szkoły Wyższej in Biała Podlaska.