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Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
FT
2 – 4
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
4/17/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów29%
×Draw21%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.54
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
2.07

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 34% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 104 away

creates per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.50
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.39

allows per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.75
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.57

finishing

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par
Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jutrzenka Giebułtów ↓

Podlasie Biała Podlaska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or draw
50%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
79%
Draw or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
71%

Winning margin

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
13%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
79%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
45%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
20%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
87%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
61%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
37%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jutrzenka Giebułtów at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 1.50 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.39 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
29%
level
21%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
50%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2–4 Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Podlasie Biała Podlaska beat Jutrzenka Giebułtów 4-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka in Krakow.