Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3–0 Garbarnia Kraków

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Garbarnia Kraków

11/4/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska50%

×Draw23%

Garbarnia Kraków27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Podlasie Biała PodlaskaExpected goals in this matchGarbarnia Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.29

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.84

Garbarnia Kraków

1.29

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 43% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 17 away

1.74

creates per match

1.29

1.30

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.74

Garbarnia Kraków

1.29

allows per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.30

Garbarnia Kraków

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlasie Biała Podlaska ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw

73%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or Garbarnia Kraków

77%

Draw or Garbarnia Kraków

50%

Winning margin

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+

28%

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals

84%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals

55%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals

28%

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

72%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

37%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)

65%

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.74 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.84

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.29 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more

50%

level

23%

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

27%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff