Garbarnia Kraków 0–1 Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Garbarnia Kraków

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

5/25/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 32Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków43%

×Draw24%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Garbarnia KrakówExpected goals in this matchPodlasie Biała Podlaska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.43

Garbarnia Kraków

1.64

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.43

Garbarnia Kraków creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 104 away

1.71

creates per match

1.39

1.47

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.71

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.39

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.47

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Podlasie Biała Podlaska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw

66%

Garbarnia Kraków or Podlasie Biała Podlaska

76%

Draw or Podlasie Biała Podlaska

57%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

22%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

81%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

49%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

23%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals

76%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals

42%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

56%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.71 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.64

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.39 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

43%

level

24%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more

34%

Garbarnia Kraków at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff