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Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Chełmianka Chełm — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
6/1/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska39%
×Draw24%
Chełmianka Chełm37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.58
Chełmianka Chełm
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 104 away

creates per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.74
Chełmianka Chełm
1.73

allows per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.30
Chełmianka Chełm
1.42

finishing

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par
Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlasie Biała Podlaska ↓

Chełmianka Chełm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw
63%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska or Chełmianka Chełm
76%
Draw or Chełmianka Chełm
61%

Winning margin

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
19%
Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
79%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
47%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
21%
Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
78%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
45%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
52%
Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Chełmianka Chełm away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.74 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.73 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
39%
level
24%
Chełmianka Chełm scores more
37%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3–1 Chełmianka Chełm

Podlasie Biała Podlaska beat Chełmianka Chełm 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Biała Podlaska.