Chełmianka Chełm 1–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Chełmianka Chełm

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

11/23/2025

III Liga - Group 4 · Group IV - 18Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Chełmianka Chełm47%

×Draw24%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chełmianka ChełmExpected goals in this matchPodlasie Biała Podlaska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.28

Chełmianka Chełm

1.67

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.28

Chełmianka Chełm creates 30% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 104 away

1.77

creates per match

1.39

1.18

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Chełmianka Chełm

1.77

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.39

allows per match

Chełmianka Chełm

1.18

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chełmianka Chełm ↓

Podlasie Biała Podlaska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chełmianka Chełm or draw

71%

Chełmianka Chełm or Podlasie Biała Podlaska

76%

Draw or Podlasie Biała Podlaska

53%

Winning margin

Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+

24%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals

81%

Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals

50%

Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals

23%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals

72%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals

37%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)

61%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chełmianka Chełm at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.77 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.67

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.39 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chełmianka Chełm scores more

47%

level

24%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more

29%

Chełmianka Chełm at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff