Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2–2 Avia Świdnik

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Avia Świdnik

9/21/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska34%

×Draw24%

Avia Świdnik41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Podlasie Biała PodlaskaExpected goals in this matchAvia Świdnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.59

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.43

Avia Świdnik

1.59

Avia Świdnik creates 11% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 104 away

1.74

creates per match

1.89

1.30

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.74

Avia Świdnik

1.89

allows per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.30

Avia Świdnik

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlasie Biała Podlaska ↓

Avia Świdnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw

59%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or Avia Świdnik

76%

Draw or Avia Świdnik

66%

Winning margin

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+

16%

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals

76%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals

42%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals

17%

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals

80%

Avia Świdnik 2+ goals

47%

Avia Świdnik 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)

45%

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.74 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.43

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more

34%

level

24%

Avia Świdnik scores more

41%

Avia Świdnik at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff