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Avia Świdnik vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
4/19/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Stadion Świdnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Avia Świdnik54%
×Draw22%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avia Świdnik
1.91
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.19

Avia Świdnik creates 61% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 104 away

creates per match

Avia Świdnik
2.24
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.39

allows per match

Avia Świdnik
0.98
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.57

finishing

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par
Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avia Świdnik ↓

Podlasie Biała Podlaska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Avia Świdnik or draw
76%
Avia Świdnik or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
78%
Draw or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
46%

Winning margin

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
31%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
85%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
57%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
30%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
70%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
33%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
70%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avia Świdnik at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avia Świdnik attack 2.24 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.91

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.39 + Avia Świdnik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Avia Świdnik scores more
54%
level
22%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
24%

Avia Świdnik at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Avia Świdnik 2–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Avia Świdnik beat Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Świdnik in Świdnik.