Podlasie Biała Podlaska 0–1 Łagów: Result & Stats

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

FT

0 – 1

Łagów

9/17/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska38%

×Draw26%

Łagów36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Podlasie Biała PodlaskaExpected goals in this matchŁagów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.33

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.38

Łagów

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 45 away

1.74

creates per match

1.36

1.30

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.74

Łagów

1.36

allows per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.30

Łagów

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlasie Biała Podlaska ↓

Łagów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw

64%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or Łagów

74%

Draw or Łagów

62%

Winning margin

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+

18%

Łagów wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals

75%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals

40%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals

16%

Łagów 1+ goals

74%

Łagów 2+ goals

38%

Łagów 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)

52%

Łagów (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.74 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.38

Łagów attack 1.36 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more

38%

level

26%

Łagów scores more

36%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff