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Łagów vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Łagów
Łagów
CANC
16:00
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
4/22/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Stadion w Łagówie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Łagów46%
×Draw24%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Łagów
1.68
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.33

Łagów creates 26% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 104 away

creates per match

Łagów
1.78
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.39

allows per match

Łagów
1.28
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.57

finishing

Łagów+0.00on par
Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łagów ↓

Podlasie Biała Podlaska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Łagów or draw
70%
Łagów or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
76%
Draw or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
54%

Winning margin

Łagów wins by 2+
24%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Łagów 1+ goals
81%
Łagów 2+ goals
50%
Łagów 3+ goals
24%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
74%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
38%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Łagów (draw refunded)
60%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łagów at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łagów attack 1.78 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.68

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.39 + Łagów defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Łagów scores more
46%
level
24%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
30%

Łagów at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Łagów host Podlasie Biała Podlaska

April 22, 2023: Łagów take on Podlasie Biała Podlaska in III Liga - Group 4. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Łagów host Podlasie Biała Podlaska at Stadion w Łagówie.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.