Podkonice 7–1 Liptovská Štiavnica: Result & Stats

Podkonice

FT

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Liptovská Štiavnica

6/1/2022

3. liga - Center · Center - 30Štadión na Brodku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Podkonice70%

×Draw17%

Liptovská Štiavnica13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PodkoniceExpected goals in this matchLiptovská Štiavnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

0.97

Podkonice

2.47

Liptovská Štiavnica

0.97

Podkonice creates 155% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

2.07

creates per match

0.74

1.21

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Podkonice

2.07

Liptovská Štiavnica

0.74

allows per match

Podkonice

1.21

Liptovská Štiavnica

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podkonice+0.00on par

Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podkonice ↓

Liptovská Štiavnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Podkonice or draw

87%

Podkonice or Liptovská Štiavnica

83%

Draw or Liptovská Štiavnica

30%

Winning margin

Podkonice wins by 2+

47%

Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Podkonice 1+ goals

91%

Podkonice 2+ goals

70%

Podkonice 3+ goals

44%

Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals

62%

Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals

25%

Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Podkonice (draw refunded)

84%

Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podkonice at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Liptovská Štiavnica away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podkonice attack 2.07 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.47

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 0.74 + Podkonice defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Podkonice scores more

70%

level

17%

Liptovská Štiavnica scores more

13%

Podkonice at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Podkonice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff