Liptovská Štiavnica 3–1 Podkonice: Result & Stats

Liptovská Štiavnica

FT

3 – 1

Podkonice

9/15/2021

3. liga - Center · Center - 15Futbalový štadión TJ Družstevník Liptovská Štiavnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Liptovská Štiavnica39%

×Draw23%

Podkonice38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liptovská ŠtiavnicaExpected goals in this matchPodkonice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.68

Liptovská Štiavnica

1.70

Podkonice

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

1.82

creates per match

1.50

1.86

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Liptovská Štiavnica

1.82

Podkonice

1.50

allows per match

Liptovská Štiavnica

1.86

Podkonice

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par

Podkonice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovská Štiavnica ↓

Podkonice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Liptovská Štiavnica or draw

62%

Liptovská Štiavnica or Podkonice

77%

Draw or Podkonice

61%

Winning margin

Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+

20%

Podkonice wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals

82%

Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals

51%

Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals

24%

Podkonice 1+ goals

81%

Podkonice 2+ goals

50%

Podkonice 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)

51%

Podkonice (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovská Štiavnica at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Podkonice away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 1.82 + Podkonice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.70

Podkonice attack 1.50 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Liptovská Štiavnica scores more

39%

level

23%

Podkonice scores more

38%

Liptovská Štiavnica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Liptovská Štiavnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff