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Podkonice vs Kováčová — 3. liga - Center 2020

Podkonice
Podkonice
FT
0 – 0
Kováčová
Kováčová
9/5/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 6Štadión na Brodku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Podkonice51%
×Draw23%
Kováčová25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podkonice
1.77
Kováčová
1.17

Podkonice creates 51% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

creates per match

Podkonice
2.07
Kováčová
1.13

allows per match

Podkonice
1.21
Kováčová
1.48

finishing

Podkonice+0.00on par
Kováčová+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podkonice ↓

Kováčová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Podkonice or draw
75%
Podkonice or Kováčová
77%
Draw or Kováčová
49%

Winning margin

Podkonice wins by 2+
28%
Kováčová wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Podkonice 1+ goals
83%
Podkonice 2+ goals
53%
Podkonice 3+ goals
26%
Kováčová 1+ goals
69%
Kováčová 2+ goals
33%
Kováčová 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Podkonice (draw refunded)
67%
Kováčová (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podkonice at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Kováčová away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podkonice attack 2.07 + Kováčová defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kováčová attack 1.13 + Podkonice defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Podkonice scores more
51%
level
23%
Kováčová scores more
25%

Podkonice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Podkonice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podkonice vs Kováčová

Podkonice and Kováčová drew 0-0 in 3. liga - Center on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión na Brodku in Podkonice.