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Kováčová vs Podkonice — 3. liga - Center 2020

Kováčová
Kováčová
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Podkonice
Podkonice
5/1/20223. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 21Štadión ŠK Prameň Kováčová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kováčová39%
×Draw25%
Podkonice36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kováčová
1.49
Podkonice
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

creates per match

Kováčová
1.41
Podkonice
1.50

allows per match

Kováčová
1.36
Podkonice
1.57

finishing

Kováčová+0.00on par
Podkonice+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kováčová ↓

Podkonice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kováčová or draw
64%
Kováčová or Podkonice
75%
Draw or Podkonice
61%

Winning margin

Kováčová wins by 2+
19%
Podkonice wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kováčová 1+ goals
77%
Kováčová 2+ goals
44%
Kováčová 3+ goals
19%
Podkonice 1+ goals
76%
Podkonice 2+ goals
42%
Podkonice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kováčová (draw refunded)
52%
Podkonice (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kováčová at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Podkonice away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kováčová attack 1.41 + Podkonice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.49

Podkonice attack 1.50 + Kováčová defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kováčová scores more
39%
level
25%
Podkonice scores more
36%

Kováčová at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kováčová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kováčová vs Podkonice

Podkonice beat Kováčová 4-0 in 3. liga - Center on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión ŠK Prameň Kováčová in Kováčová.