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Podkonice vs Kalná nad Hronom — 3. liga - West 2020

Podkonice
Podkonice
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
11/6/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 14Štadión na Brodku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Podkonice50%
×Draw26%
Kalná nad Hronom24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podkonice
1.54
Kalná nad Hronom
0.98

Podkonice creates 57% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 31 away

creates per match

Podkonice
1.48
Kalná nad Hronom
1.10

allows per match

Podkonice
0.85
Kalná nad Hronom
1.61

finishing

Podkonice+0.00on par
Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podkonice ↓

Kalná nad Hronom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Podkonice or draw
76%
Podkonice or Kalná nad Hronom
74%
Draw or Kalná nad Hronom
50%

Winning margin

Podkonice wins by 2+
26%
Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Podkonice 1+ goals
79%
Podkonice 2+ goals
45%
Podkonice 3+ goals
20%
Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
62%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
26%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Podkonice (draw refunded)
68%
Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podkonice at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

Kalná nad Hronom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podkonice attack 1.48 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.10 + Podkonice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Podkonice scores more
50%
level
26%
Kalná nad Hronom scores more
24%

Podkonice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Podkonice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podkonice vs Kalná nad Hronom

Podkonice and Kalná nad Hronom drew 0-0 in 3. liga - West on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión na Brodku in Podkonice.