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Kalná nad Hronom vs Podkonice — 3. liga - West 2020

Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
CANC
15:00
Podkonice
Podkonice
6/3/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 29Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kalná nad Hronom49%
×Draw24%
Podkonice27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalná nad Hronom
1.70
Podkonice
1.19

Kalná nad Hronom creates 43% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.64
Podkonice
1.18

allows per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.21
Podkonice
1.76

finishing

Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par
Podkonice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalná nad Hronom ↓

Podkonice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kalná nad Hronom or draw
73%
Kalná nad Hronom or Podkonice
76%
Draw or Podkonice
51%

Winning margin

Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
26%
Podkonice wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
82%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
51%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
24%
Podkonice 1+ goals
70%
Podkonice 2+ goals
33%
Podkonice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
65%
Podkonice (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalná nad Hronom at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Podkonice away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.64 + Podkonice defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.70

Podkonice attack 1.18 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kalná nad Hronom scores more
49%
level
24%
Podkonice scores more
27%

Kalná nad Hronom at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kalná nad Hronom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kalná nad Hronom vs Podkonice — Match Preview

Kalná nad Hronom face Podkonice on June 3, 2023 in this 3. liga - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kalná nad Hronom host Podkonice at Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.