Podillya Khmelnytskyi 0–2 Nyva Buzova

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nyva Buzova

R. Palamar 80' (pen)

K. Prokopchuk 39'

8/6/2023

Persha Liga · Round 2Stadion Podillia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi33%

×Draw29%

Nyva Buzova38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Podillya KhmelnytskyiExpected goals in this matchNyva Buzova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.14

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.04

Nyva Buzova

1.14

Nyva Buzova creates 10% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 14 away

1.08

creates per match

1.21

1.06

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.08

Nyva Buzova

1.21

allows per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.06

Nyva Buzova

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podillya Khmelnytskyi ↓

Nyva Buzova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Podillya Khmelnytskyi or draw

62%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi or Nyva Buzova

71%

Draw or Nyva Buzova

67%

Winning margin

Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+

13%

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals

65%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals

28%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals

9%

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

68%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

32%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)

46%

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Nyva Buzova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 1.08 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Nyva Buzova attack 1.21 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more

33%

level

29%

Nyva Buzova scores more

38%

Nyva Buzova at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nyva Buzova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

O. Veremiyenko

32'

K. Kostenko

39'

K. Prokopchuk

40'

D. Bozhenar← I. Karpenko

41'

I. Budnyak

55'

P. Zakhidnyi

57'

K. Prokopchuk

60'

V. Nekhtii← M. Serhiichuk

60'

V. Tymenko← D. Knysh

62'

O. Veremiyenko

62'

O. Veremiyenko

70'

R. Nazarchuk← K. Kostenko

80'

R. PalamarPenalty

81'

O. Kalinin← R. Palamar

83'

I. Orobets← V. Kaverin

83'

Y. Bykov← O. Tsybulnyk

83'

Y. Dobrokhotov← S. Siminin

87'

P. Zakhidnyi

87'

P. Zakhidnyi

90+3'

D. Shamych← Y. Shalfieiev

90+3'

S. Ursolov← I. Budniak

Podillya

Nyva

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Kostyshyn

40'▲D. Bozhenar←▼I. Karpenko

70'▲R. Nazarchuk←▼K. Kostenko

83'▲I. Orobets←▼V. Kaverin

83'▲Y. Bykov←▼O. Tsybulnyk

83'▲Y. Dobrokhotov←▼S. Siminin

Podillya Khmelnytskyi substitutes

BozhenarNazarchukOrobetsBykovDobrokhotovPetrychenkoLys

Manager: I. Zhabchenko

60'▲V. Nekhtii←▼M. Serhiichuk

60'▲V. Tymenko←▼D. Knysh

81'▲O. Kalinin←▼R. Palamar

90+3'▲D. Shamych←▼Y. Shalfieiev

90+3'▲S. Ursolov←▼I. Budniak

Nyva Buzova substitutes

NekhtiiTymenkoKalininShamychUrsolovTkachenkoLiopkaZakharchukMnyshenkoMelnyk

Match Recap: Podillya Khmelnytskyi vs Nyva Buzova

Nyva Buzova beat Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2-0 in Persha Liga on August 6, 2023.

Goals: K. Prokopchuk (39'), R. Palamar (80' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Podillia in Khmelnytskyi.

Podillya Khmelnytskyi vs Nyva Buzova — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Podillya Khmelnytskyi vs Nyva Buzova