Nyva Buzova 2–1 Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Nyva Buzova

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

D. Knysh 57' (pen)

V. Nekhtii 7'

Y. Dobrokhotov 37' (pen)

10/8/2023

Persha Liga · Round 11Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nyva Buzova35%

×Draw29%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyva BuzovaExpected goals in this matchPodillya Khmelnytskyi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.14

Nyva Buzova

1.11

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 51 away

1.07

creates per match

0.84

1.43

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Nyva Buzova

1.07

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

0.84

allows per match

Nyva Buzova

1.43

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Buzova ↓

Podillya Khmelnytskyi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nyva Buzova or draw

64%

Nyva Buzova or Podillya Khmelnytskyi

71%

Draw or Podillya Khmelnytskyi

65%

Winning margin

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

14%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

67%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

30%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

10%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals

68%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals

32%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

49%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Buzova at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Buzova attack 1.07 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 0.84 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nyva Buzova scores more

35%

level

29%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more

36%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Podillya Khmelnytskyi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

V. Nekhtii

28'

K. Prokopchuk

32'

I. Budnyak

37'

Y. DobrokhotovPenalty

57'

V. Boldenkov

57'

D. KnyshPenalty

61'

M. Voytikhovskiy

63'

I. Kovalenko

68'

K. Kostenko← Y. Dobrokhotov

68'

N. Lys← V. Boldenkov

68'

S. Vasylenko← V. Kaverin

70'

D. Litovchenko← D. Knysh

81'

M. Sergiychuk

85'

O. Kalinin← M. Serhiichuk

85'

I. Orobets← M. Voitikhovskyi

89'

R. Nazarchuk← I. Kovalenko

90+1'

D. Litovchenko

90+3'

V. Tymenko← V. Nekhtii

Nyva

Podillya

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Nekhtii

Manager: I. Zhabchenko

70'▲D. Litovchenko←▼D. Knysh

85'▲O. Kalinin←▼M. Serhiichuk

90+3'▲V. Tymenko←▼V. Nekhtii

Nyva Buzova substitutes

LitovchenkoKalininTymenkoMelnykTkachenkoKlimovZakhidnyiZakharchukUrsolovMnyshenko

Manager: V. Kostyshyn

68'▲K. Kostenko←▼Y. Dobrokhotov

68'▲N. Lys←▼V. Boldenkov

68'▲S. Vasylenko←▼V. Kaverin

85'▲I. Orobets←▼M. Voitikhovskyi

89'▲R. Nazarchuk←▼I. Kovalenko

Podillya Khmelnytskyi substitutes

KostenkoLysVasylenkoOrobetsNazarchukZadereikoBykov

Match Recap: Nyva Buzova vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Nyva Buzova beat Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2-1 in Persha Liga on October 8, 2023.

Goals: V. Nekhtii (7'), Y. Dobrokhotov (37' pen), D. Knysh (57' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Bucha.

Nyva Buzova vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nyva Buzova vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi