Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2–1 Kramatorsk

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Kramatorsk

11/20/2021

Persha Liga · Round 19Stadion Podillya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi45%

×Draw28%

Kramatorsk27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Podillya KhmelnytskyiExpected goals in this matchKramatorsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.96

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.33

Kramatorsk

0.96

Podillya Khmelnytskyi creates 39% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 40 away

1.08

creates per match

0.85

1.06

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.08

Kramatorsk

0.85

allows per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.06

Kramatorsk

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Kramatorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podillya Khmelnytskyi ↓

Kramatorsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Podillya Khmelnytskyi or draw

73%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi or Kramatorsk

72%

Draw or Kramatorsk

55%

Winning margin

Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+

21%

Kramatorsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals

74%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals

38%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals

15%

Kramatorsk 1+ goals

62%

Kramatorsk 2+ goals

25%

Kramatorsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)

63%

Kramatorsk (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Kramatorsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 1.08 + Kramatorsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kramatorsk attack 0.85 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more

45%

level

28%

Kramatorsk scores more

27%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Podillya Khmelnytskyi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff