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Kramatorsk vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi — Persha Liga 2019

Kramatorsk
Kramatorsk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
8/13/2021Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 4Stadion Prapor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kramatorsk40%
×Draw28%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kramatorsk
1.25
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.10

Kramatorsk creates 14% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kramatorsk
1.34
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.84

allows per match

Kramatorsk
1.37
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.16

finishing

Kramatorsk+0.00on par
Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kramatorsk ↓

Podillya Khmelnytskyi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kramatorsk or draw
68%
Kramatorsk or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
72%
Draw or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
60%

Winning margin

Kramatorsk wins by 2+
17%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kramatorsk 1+ goals
71%
Kramatorsk 2+ goals
36%
Kramatorsk 3+ goals
13%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals
67%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals
30%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kramatorsk (draw refunded)
55%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kramatorsk at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kramatorsk attack 1.34 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 0.84 + Kramatorsk defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kramatorsk scores more
40%
level
28%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more
32%

Kramatorsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kramatorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Kramatorsk 2–1 Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Kramatorsk beat Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2-1 in Persha Liga on August 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Prapor in Kramatorsk.