Podillya Khmelnytskyi 4–1 Khust City

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Khust City

D. Prikhna 62'

D. Bozhenar 57'

Y. Zadoia 24'

M. Voitikhovskyi 5'

V. Ivanov 90'

11/4/2023

Persha Liga · Round 15Stadion Podillia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi47%

×Draw26%

Khust City27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Podillya KhmelnytskyiExpected goals in this matchKhust City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.06

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.48

Khust City

1.06

Podillya Khmelnytskyi creates 40% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

1.08

creates per match

1.06

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.08

Khust City

1.06

allows per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.06

Khust City

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Khust City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podillya Khmelnytskyi ↓

Khust City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Podillya Khmelnytskyi or draw

73%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi or Khust City

74%

Draw or Khust City

53%

Winning margin

Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+

23%

Khust City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals

77%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals

43%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals

19%

Khust City 1+ goals

65%

Khust City 2+ goals

29%

Khust City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)

63%

Khust City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Khust City away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 1.08 + Khust City defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Khust City attack 1.06 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more

47%

level

26%

Khust City scores more

27%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Podillya Khmelnytskyi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

M. Voitikhovskyi

23'

K. Kolchin

24'

Y. Zadoia

56'

N. Lys← Y. Zadoia

57'

D. Bozhenar

62'

D. Prikhna

66'

M. Pylyp← Y. Skyba

66'

M. Vadovskyi← I. Stankovych

70'

V. Shevchuk

73'

V. Vasylynets← I. Tykhnenko

75'

H. Savchuk← R. Nazarchuk

75'

V. Kaverin← D. Bozhenar

79'

S. Vasylenko← M. Voitikhovskyi

79'

Y. Dobrokhotov← K. Kostenko

90'

V. Ivanov

Podillya

Khust

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Voitikhov

Veremiien

▼

Nazarchuk

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Bozhenar

Orobets

Manager: V. Kostyshyn

56'▲N. Lys←▼Y. Zadoia

75'▲H. Savchuk←▼R. Nazarchuk

75'▲V. Kaverin←▼D. Bozhenar

79'▲S. Vasylenko←▼M. Voitikhovskyi

79'▲Y. Dobrokhotov←▼K. Kostenko

Podillya Khmelnytskyi substitutes

LysSavchukKaverinVasylenkoDobrokhotovZadereikoPetrychenkoKovalenkoBoldenkovChushenko

Manager: V. Tsytkin

66'▲M. Pylyp←▼Y. Skyba

66'▲M. Vadovskyi←▼I. Stankovych

73'▲V. Vasylynets←▼I. Tykhnenko

Khust City substitutes

PylypVadovskyiVasylynetsDyianchukVahinMerdieievRiabenko

Match Recap: Podillya Khmelnytskyi vs Khust City

Podillya Khmelnytskyi beat Khust City 4-1 in Persha Liga on November 4, 2023.

Goals: M. Voitikhovskyi (5'), Y. Zadoia (24'), D. Bozhenar (57'), D. Prikhna (62'), V. Ivanov (90').

The match was played at Stadion Podillia in Khmelnytskyi.

Podillya Khmelnytskyi vs Khust City — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Podillya Khmelnytskyi vs Khust City