Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khust City vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi — Persha Liga 2019

Khust City
Khust City
CANC
00:00
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
10/4/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Khust City34%
×Draw27%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khust City
1.23
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Khust City
1.29
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.84

allows per match

Khust City
1.82
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.16

finishing

Khust City+0.00on par
Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khust City ↓

Podillya Khmelnytskyi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Khust City or draw
61%
Khust City or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
73%
Draw or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
66%

Winning margin

Khust City wins by 2+
15%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Khust City 1+ goals
71%
Khust City 2+ goals
35%
Khust City 3+ goals
13%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals
74%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals
38%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Khust City (draw refunded)
47%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khust City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khust City attack 1.29 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 0.84 + Khust City defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khust City scores more
34%
level
27%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more
39%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Podillya Khmelnytskyi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Khust City face Podillya Khmelnytskyi (Persha Liga)

Persha Liga returns with Khust City hosting Podillya Khmelnytskyi. Match starts October 4, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.