Podhale Nowy Targ 1–1 Stal Stalowa Wola

Podhale Nowy Targ

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stal Stalowa Wola

B. Kurzeja 49'

D. Wolny 6'

8/17/2025

II Liga - East · Round 4Stadion Mijeski im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Podhale Nowy Targ49%

×Draw25%

Stal Stalowa Wola27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Podhale Nowy TargExpected goals in this matchStal Stalowa Wola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.14

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.63

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.14

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 43% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 52 away

1.78

creates per match

1.21

1.06

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.78

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.21

allows per match

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.06

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podhale Nowy Targ ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Podhale Nowy Targ or draw

73%

Podhale Nowy Targ or Stal Stalowa Wola

75%

Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola

51%

Winning margin

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+

26%

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals

80%

Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals

48%

Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals

22%

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

68%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

32%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)

65%

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podhale Nowy Targ at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.78 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.63

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.21 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more

49%

level

25%

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

27%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

49'

49'

57'

61'

67'

M. Radecki← L. Hrnciar

67'

K. Lelek← D. Wolny

71'

R. Cielemecki← Marcinho

77'

R. Cielemecki

81'

C. Pena← L. Seweryn

86'

B. Mikolajczyk← B. Purcha

86'

M. Lipien← A. Chojecki

90+3'

Podhale

Stal

53

Stepak

4

Furtak

8

▼

10

11

17

18

▼

Surzyn

19

⚽

▼

23

77

6

1

19

21

2

16

8

20

▼

Chojecki

7

▼

Seweryn

11

▼

Purcha

87

⚽

Kurzeja

29

▼

Marcinho

Manager: M. Zubek

71'▲R. Cielemecki←▼Marcinho

81'▲C. Pena←▼L. Seweryn

86'▲B. Mikolajczyk←▼B. Purcha

86'▲M. Lipien←▼A. Chojecki

Podhale Nowy Targ substitutes

33Fratczak30Kumorek9Niedzialkowski15Herman77Cielemecki4Mikolajczyk27Pena42Lipien99Giel

Manager: M. Jarosz

61'▲O. Nowak←▼M. Surzyn

67'▲M. Radecki←▼L. Hrnciar

67'▲K. Lelek←▼D. Wolny

Stal Stalowa Wola substitutes

33Smylek2Kukulowicz7Radecki9Lacki16Lelek20Niedbala55Oko73Radomski99Nowak