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Podhale Nowy Targ vs Stal Stalowa Wola — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
4/2/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Podhale Nowy Targ38%
×Draw25%
Stal Stalowa Wola37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.45
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 54 away

creates per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.83
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.74

allows per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.08
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.07

finishing

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par
Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podhale Nowy Targ ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Podhale Nowy Targ or draw
63%
Podhale Nowy Targ or Stal Stalowa Wola
75%
Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola
62%

Winning margin

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
18%
Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
77%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
42%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
18%
Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
76%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
41%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
51%
Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podhale Nowy Targ at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.83 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.45

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.74 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
38%
level
25%
Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
37%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Podhale Nowy Targ 0–0 Stal Stalowa Wola

Podhale Nowy Targ and Stal Stalowa Wola drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Nowy Targ.