Podhale Nowy Targ vs Olimpia Grudziądz — II Liga - East 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Podhale Nowy Targ49%
Olimpia Grudziądz26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Podhale Nowy Targ creates 45% more chances
Season form · 18 home / 69 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Podhale Nowy Targ ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Podhale Nowy Targ at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches
Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.78 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.68
Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.26 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Podhale Nowy Targ at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Unia Skierniewice
Warta PoznańOlimpia Grudziądz
Podbeskidzie
Sandecja Nowy SączPodhale Nowy Targ
Śląsk Wrocław II
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Hutnik Kraków
Resovia Rzeszów
Świt Skolwin
Stal Stalowa Wola
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Sokół Kleczew
Kalisz
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
ŁKS Łódź II
Jastrzębie
Górnik Polkowice
KSZO 1929
Łomża
LuzinoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Podhale Nowy Targ host Olimpia Grudziądz on Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 12:45. The match is part of the II Liga - East 2026/2027 season.
II Liga - East: Podhale Nowy Targ 1–2 Olimpia Grudziądz
Olimpia Grudziądz beat Podhale Nowy Targ 2-1 in II Liga - East on February 22, 2026.
Goals: D. Frelek (38', 62'), M. Michota (82' pen).
The match was played at Stadion Mijeski im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego in Nowy Targ.