Olimpia Grudziądz vs Podhale Nowy Targ — II Liga - East 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Olimpia Grudziądz38%
Podhale Nowy Targ35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 71 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Olimpia Grudziądz ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches
Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.45 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.28
Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.06 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Olimpia Grudziądz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Olimpia Grudziądz substitutes
Podhale Nowy Targ substitutes
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Unia Skierniewice
Warta PoznańOlimpia Grudziądz
Podbeskidzie
Sandecja Nowy SączPodhale Nowy Targ
Śląsk Wrocław II
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Hutnik Kraków
Resovia Rzeszów
Świt Skolwin
Stal Stalowa Wola
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Sokół Kleczew
Kalisz
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
ŁKS Łódź II
Jastrzębie
Górnik Polkowice
KSZO 1929
Łomża
LuzinoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Olimpia Grudziądz host Podhale Nowy Targ on Sunday, 10 August 2025 at 17:23. The match is part of the II Liga - East 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Olimpia Grudziądz vs Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ beat Olimpia Grudziądz 1-0 in II Liga - East on August 10, 2025.
Goals: B. Kurzeja (35').
The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego in Grudziądz.