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Podhale Nowy Targ vs Czarni Połaniec — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
11/18/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Podhale Nowy Targ54%
×Draw22%
Czarni Połaniec24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.93
Czarni Połaniec
1.21

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 60% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 85 away

creates per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.83
Czarni Połaniec
1.34

allows per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.08
Czarni Połaniec
2.02

finishing

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par
Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podhale Nowy Targ ↓

Czarni Połaniec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Podhale Nowy Targ or draw
76%
Podhale Nowy Targ or Czarni Połaniec
78%
Draw or Czarni Połaniec
46%

Winning margin

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
31%
Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
85%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
57%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
30%
Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
70%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
34%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
69%
Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podhale Nowy Targ at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

Czarni Połaniec away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.02 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.83 + Czarni Połaniec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.93

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.34 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
54%
level
22%
Czarni Połaniec scores more
24%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Podhale Nowy Targ 1–1 Czarni Połaniec

Podhale Nowy Targ and Czarni Połaniec drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Nowy Targ.