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Czarni Połaniec vs Podhale Nowy Targ — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
6/8/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 34Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Czarni Połaniec43%
×Draw24%
Podhale Nowy Targ33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Czarni Połaniec
1.61
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.38

Czarni Połaniec creates 17% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 86 away

creates per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.74
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.38

allows per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.38
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.49

finishing

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par
Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Połaniec ↓

Podhale Nowy Targ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Czarni Połaniec or draw
67%
Czarni Połaniec or Podhale Nowy Targ
76%
Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ
57%

Winning margin

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
22%
Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
80%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
48%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
22%
Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
75%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
40%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
57%
Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Połaniec at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.74 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.61

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.38 + Czarni Połaniec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Czarni Połaniec scores more
43%
level
24%
Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
33%

Czarni Połaniec at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Czarni Połaniec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Czarni Połaniec 1–0 Podhale Nowy Targ

Czarni Połaniec beat Podhale Nowy Targ 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec in Połaniec.