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Podhale Nowy Targ vs Chełmianka Chełm — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
FT
1 – 2
Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
3/23/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Podhale Nowy Targ43%
×Draw24%
Chełmianka Chełm33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.63
Chełmianka Chełm
1.41

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 16% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 104 away

creates per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.83
Chełmianka Chełm
1.73

allows per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.08
Chełmianka Chełm
1.42

finishing

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par
Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podhale Nowy Targ ↓

Chełmianka Chełm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Podhale Nowy Targ or draw
67%
Podhale Nowy Targ or Chełmianka Chełm
76%
Draw or Chełmianka Chełm
57%

Winning margin

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
22%
Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
80%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
48%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
22%
Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
76%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
41%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
56%
Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podhale Nowy Targ at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

Chełmianka Chełm away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.83 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.63

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.73 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
43%
level
24%
Chełmianka Chełm scores more
33%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Podhale Nowy Targ 1–2 Chełmianka Chełm

Chełmianka Chełm beat Podhale Nowy Targ 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Nowy Targ.