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Chełmianka Chełm vs Podhale Nowy Targ — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
P. Ofiara 56'
B. Korbecki 37' (pen)
8/27/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Chełmianka Chełm46%
×Draw24%
Podhale Nowy Targ30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chełmianka Chełm
1.63
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.28

Chełmianka Chełm creates 27% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 86 away

creates per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.77
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.38

allows per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.18
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.49

finishing

Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par
Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chełmianka Chełm ↓

Podhale Nowy Targ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chełmianka Chełm or draw
70%
Chełmianka Chełm or Podhale Nowy Targ
76%
Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ
54%

Winning margin

Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
24%
Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
80%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
48%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
22%
Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
72%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
37%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
60%
Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chełmianka Chełm at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.77 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.63

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.38 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chełmianka Chełm scores more
46%
level
24%
Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
30%

Chełmianka Chełm at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
B. KorbeckiPenalty
56'
P. Ofiara

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Chełmianka Chełm 2–0 Podhale Nowy Targ

Chełmianka Chełm beat Podhale Nowy Targ 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 27, 2023.

Goals: B. Korbecki (37' pen), P. Ofiara (56').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Chełm.