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Tsarsko Selo vs Chernomorets Balchik — Second League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
4 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
9/1/2018Second LeagueSecond League · Round 6Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tsarsko Selo68%
×Draw19%
Chernomorets Balchik12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
2.07
Chernomorets Balchik
0.73

Tsarsko Selo creates 184% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 42 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
2.47
Chernomorets Balchik
0.62

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
0.84
Chernomorets Balchik
1.67

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Chernomorets Balchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
88%
Tsarsko Selo or Chernomorets Balchik
81%
Draw or Chernomorets Balchik
32%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
43%
Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
87%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
61%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
34%
Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
52%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
17%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
85%
Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Chernomorets Balchik away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.67 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.47 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.07

Chernomorets Balchik attack 0.62 + Tsarsko Selo defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
68%
level
19%
Chernomorets Balchik scores more
12%

Tsarsko Selo at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tsarsko Selo vs Chernomorets Balchik

Tsarsko Selo beat Chernomorets Balchik 4-2 in Second League on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia).