Chernomorets Balchik 1–3 Tsarsko Selo

Chernomorets Balchik

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Tsarsko Selo

V. Yoskov 56'

P. Tenev 87'

G. Minchev 35' (pen)

Luan Viana 19'

3/16/2019

Second League · Round 21Gradski stadion (Balchik)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Chernomorets Balchik33%

×Draw26%

Tsarsko Selo41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chernomorets BalchikExpected goals in this matchTsarsko Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.44

Chernomorets Balchik

1.25

Tsarsko Selo

1.44

Tsarsko Selo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 23 away

1.23

creates per match

1.91

0.98

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Chernomorets Balchik

1.23

Tsarsko Selo

1.91

allows per match

Chernomorets Balchik

0.98

Tsarsko Selo

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets Balchik ↓

Tsarsko Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chernomorets Balchik or draw

59%

Chernomorets Balchik or Tsarsko Selo

74%

Draw or Tsarsko Selo

67%

Winning margin

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+

14%

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals

71%

Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals

36%

Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals

13%

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

76%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

42%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)

44%

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets Balchik at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets Balchik attack 1.23 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.91 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chernomorets Balchik scores more

33%

level

26%

Tsarsko Selo scores more

41%

Tsarsko Selo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Luan Viana

23'

E. Manev← Luan Viana

35'

G. MinchevPenalty

56'

V. Yoskov

78'

K. Georgiev← V. Mitev

85'

G. Andonov← A. Kabov

87'

P. Tenev

90+1'

L. Lyubenov← N. Ivanov

90'

S. Zhelyazkov← R. Kasabov

90'

V. Semerdzhiev← A. Georgiev

Chernomorets

Tsarsko

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: G. Ivanov

78'▲K. Georgiev←▼V. Mitev

90+1'▲L. Lyubenov←▼N. Ivanov

90'▲S. Zhelyazkov←▼R. Kasabov

Chernomorets Balchik substitutes

GeorgievLyubenovZhelyazkovHikmetTsvetkovRadev

Manager: N. Spasov

23'▲E. Manev←▼Luan Viana

85'▲G. Andonov←▼A. Kabov

90'▲V. Semerdzhiev←▼A. Georgiev

Tsarsko Selo substitutes

ManevAndonovSemerdzhievYordanovDimitrovMinev