Podbrezová 4–0 Liptovský Mikuláš: Result & Stats

Podbrezová

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Liptovský Mikuláš

1/12/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Umelá tráva Skalica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Podbrezová56%

×Draw20%

Liptovský Mikuláš23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PodbrezováExpected goals in this matchLiptovský Mikuláš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.34

Podbrezová

2.19

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.34

Podbrezová creates 63% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

2.24

creates per match

1.75

0.94

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Podbrezová

2.24

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.75

allows per match

Podbrezová

0.94

Liptovský Mikuláš

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podbrezová+0.00on par

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbrezová ↓

Liptovský Mikuláš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Podbrezová or draw

77%

Podbrezová or Liptovský Mikuláš

80%

Draw or Liptovský Mikuláš

44%

Winning margin

Podbrezová wins by 2+

35%

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Podbrezová 1+ goals

89%

Podbrezová 2+ goals

64%

Podbrezová 3+ goals

37%

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

74%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

39%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Podbrezová (draw refunded)

71%

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbrezová at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Liptovský Mikuláš away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbrezová attack 2.24 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.19

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.75 + Podbrezová defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Podbrezová scores more

56%

level

20%

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

23%

Podbrezová at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Podbrezová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff