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Podbrezová vs Liptovský Mikuláš — 2. liga 2019

Podbrezová
Podbrezová
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Liptovský Mikuláš
Liptovský Mikuláš
9/26/20202. liga2. liga · Round 10ZELPO Aréna Podbrezová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Podbrezová57%
×Draw21%
Liptovský Mikuláš22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podbrezová
2.13
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.25

Podbrezová creates 70% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 67 away

creates per match

Podbrezová
2.61
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.66

allows per match

Podbrezová
0.85
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.64

finishing

Podbrezová+0.00on par
Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbrezová ↓

Liptovský Mikuláš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Podbrezová or draw
78%
Podbrezová or Liptovský Mikuláš
79%
Draw or Liptovský Mikuláš
43%

Winning margin

Podbrezová wins by 2+
35%
Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Podbrezová 1+ goals
88%
Podbrezová 2+ goals
63%
Podbrezová 3+ goals
35%
Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals
71%
Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals
36%
Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Podbrezová (draw refunded)
72%
Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbrezová at home — creates 2.61, concedes 0.85 · 41 matches

Liptovský Mikuláš away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.64 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbrezová attack 2.61 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.13

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.66 + Podbrezová defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Podbrezová scores more
57%
level
21%
Liptovský Mikuláš scores more
22%

Podbrezová at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Podbrezová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Podbrezová 1–2 Liptovský Mikuláš

Liptovský Mikuláš beat Podbrezová 2-1 in 2. liga on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at ZELPO Aréna Podbrezová in Podbrezová.