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Podbeskidzie vs Miedz Legnica — I Liga 2018

Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
4/14/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 28Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Podbeskidzie42%
×Draw26%
Miedz Legnica32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podbeskidzie
1.39
Miedz Legnica
1.18

Podbeskidzie creates 18% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 105 away

creates per match

Podbeskidzie
1.59
Miedz Legnica
1.23

allows per match

Podbeskidzie
1.13
Miedz Legnica
1.18

finishing

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par
Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbeskidzie ↓

Miedz Legnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Podbeskidzie or draw
68%
Podbeskidzie or Miedz Legnica
74%
Draw or Miedz Legnica
58%

Winning margin

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+
20%
Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals
75%
Podbeskidzie 2+ goals
40%
Podbeskidzie 3+ goals
16%
Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
69%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
33%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)
57%
Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbeskidzie at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 85 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbeskidzie attack 1.59 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.39

Miedz Legnica attack 1.23 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Podbeskidzie scores more
42%
level
26%
Miedz Legnica scores more
32%

Podbeskidzie at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Podbeskidzie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podbeskidzie vs Miedz Legnica

Podbeskidzie and Miedz Legnica drew 1-1 in I Liga on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Bielsko-Biała.