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Miedz Legnica vs Podbeskidzie — I Liga 2018

Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
10/1/2021I LigaI Liga · Round 11Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Miedz Legnica48%
×Draw24%
Podbeskidzie28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miedz Legnica
1.69
Podbeskidzie
1.23

Miedz Legnica creates 37% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 85 away

creates per match

Miedz Legnica
1.83
Podbeskidzie
1.31

allows per match

Miedz Legnica
1.15
Podbeskidzie
1.55

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par
Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Podbeskidzie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw
72%
Miedz Legnica or Podbeskidzie
76%
Draw or Podbeskidzie
52%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
26%
Podbeskidzie wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
82%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
50%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
24%
Podbeskidzie 1+ goals
71%
Podbeskidzie 2+ goals
35%
Podbeskidzie 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
63%
Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 102 matches

Podbeskidzie away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.83 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.69

Podbeskidzie attack 1.31 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more
48%
level
24%
Podbeskidzie scores more
28%

Miedz Legnica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miedz Legnica vs Podbeskidzie

Miedz Legnica beat Podbeskidzie 4-2 in I Liga on October 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Orła Białego in Legnica.