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Podbeskidzie vs Lechia Gdansk — Ekstraklasa 2018

Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
3/6/2021EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 20Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Podbeskidzie37%
×Draw25%
Lechia Gdansk37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podbeskidzie
1.40
Lechia Gdansk
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

creates per match

Podbeskidzie
1.13
Lechia Gdansk
1.27

allows per match

Podbeskidzie
1.53
Lechia Gdansk
1.68

finishing

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par
Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbeskidzie ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Podbeskidzie or draw
63%
Podbeskidzie or Lechia Gdansk
75%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
63%

Winning margin

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+
17%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals
75%
Podbeskidzie 2+ goals
41%
Podbeskidzie 3+ goals
17%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
75%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
41%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)
50%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbeskidzie at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbeskidzie attack 1.13 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.27 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Podbeskidzie scores more
37%
level
25%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
37%

Podbeskidzie at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Podbeskidzie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podbeskidzie vs Lechia Gdansk

Podbeskidzie and Lechia Gdansk drew 2-2 in Ekstraklasa on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Bielsko-Biała.