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Lechia Gdansk vs Podbeskidzie — Ekstraklasa 2018

Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
9/26/2020EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 5Stadion Energa Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lechia Gdansk60%
×Draw21%
Podbeskidzie18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdansk
1.98
Podbeskidzie
0.98

Lechia Gdansk creates 102% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.48
Podbeskidzie
0.80

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.16
Podbeskidzie
2.47

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par
Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Podbeskidzie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw
82%
Lechia Gdansk or Podbeskidzie
79%
Draw or Podbeskidzie
40%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
36%
Podbeskidzie wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
86%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
59%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
31%
Podbeskidzie 1+ goals
62%
Podbeskidzie 2+ goals
26%
Podbeskidzie 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
77%
Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 120 matches

Podbeskidzie away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.48 + Podbeskidzie defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.98

Podbeskidzie attack 0.80 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more
60%
level
21%
Podbeskidzie scores more
18%

Lechia Gdansk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lechia Gdansk vs Podbeskidzie

Lechia Gdansk beat Podbeskidzie 4-0 in Ekstraklasa on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk in Gdańsk.