Poblense 1–2 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Poblense

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Marc de la Espada 76' (pen)

Carlos Fernández 90+4'

Xesc Navalón 36'

11/25/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 12Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Poblense42%

×Draw26%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PoblenseExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.25

Poblense

1.45

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.25

Poblense creates 16% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 44 away

2.31

creates per match

2.00

0.49

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Poblense

2.31

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Poblense

0.49

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poblense+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poblense ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Poblense or draw

67%

Poblense or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

74%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

58%

Winning margin

Poblense wins by 2+

20%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Poblense 1+ goals

77%

Poblense 2+ goals

42%

Poblense 3+ goals

18%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

71%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

36%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Poblense (draw refunded)

56%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Poblense at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.49 · 81 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Poblense attack 2.31 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Poblense defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Poblense scores more

42%

level

26%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

33%

Poblense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Víctor Gibert← Jaume Vidal

36'

Xesc Navalón

48'

Carlos Fernández← Xesc Navalón

58'

C. Carosso← Álex Sánchez

67'

Marc García← Miki Capellà

67'

Miquel Llabrés← Josep Payeras

76'

Marc de la EspadaPenalty

81'

Santi Aragón← Víctor Gibert

81'

Iván Ojeda← Marc de la Espada

83'

Mario Hernández← Jaume Villar

90+4'

Carlos Fernández

Poblense

Ibiza

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Espada

▼

Vidal

▼

Capellà

Manager: Óscar Troya

4'▲Víctor Gibert←▼Jaume Vidal

67'▲Marc García←▼Miki Capellà

67'▲Miquel Llabrés←▼Josep Payeras

81'▲Santi Aragón←▼Víctor Gibert

81'▲Iván Ojeda←▼Marc de la Espada

Poblense substitutes

GibertGarcíaLlabrésAragónOjeda

Manager: Raúl Casañ

48'▲Carlos Fernández←▼Xesc Navalón

58'▲C. Carosso←▼Álex Sánchez

83'▲Mario Hernández←▼Jaume Villar

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

FernándezCarossoHernández

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Poblense 1–2 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Poblense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 25, 2023.

Goals: Xesc Navalón (36'), Marc de la Espada (76' pen), Carlos Fernández (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla in Mallorca.

Poblense vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Poblense 1–2 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas