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Poblense vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Poblense
Poblense
CANC
00:00
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 28Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Poblense42%
×Draw26%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poblense
1.45
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
1.25

Poblense creates 16% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 44 away

creates per match

Poblense
2.31
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
2.00

allows per match

Poblense
0.49
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
0.59

finishing

Poblense+0.00on par
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poblense ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Poblense or draw
67%
Poblense or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
74%
Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
58%

Winning margin

Poblense wins by 2+
20%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Poblense 1+ goals
77%
Poblense 2+ goals
42%
Poblense 3+ goals
18%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals
71%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals
36%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Poblense (draw refunded)
56%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poblense at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.49 · 81 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poblense attack 2.31 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Poblense defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Poblense scores more
42%
level
26%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more
33%

Poblense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Poblense host Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

March 15, 2020: Poblense take on Ibiza Islas Pitiusas in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Poblense host Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.