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Poblense vs CE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Poblense
Poblense
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
CE Sant Jordi
CE Sant Jordi
1/7/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 15Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Poblense85%
×Draw10%
CE Sant Jordi4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poblense
2.96
CE Sant Jordi
0.54

Poblense creates 448% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

creates per match

Poblense
2.31
CE Sant Jordi
0.60

allows per match

Poblense
0.49
CE Sant Jordi
3.60

finishing

Poblense+0.00on par
CE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poblense ↓

CE Sant Jordi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Poblense or draw
96%
Poblense or CE Sant Jordi
90%
Draw or CE Sant Jordi
15%

Winning margin

Poblense wins by 2+
66%
CE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Poblense 1+ goals
95%
Poblense 2+ goals
79%
Poblense 3+ goals
55%
CE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
42%
CE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
10%
CE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Poblense (draw refunded)
95%
CE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poblense at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.49 · 81 matches

CE Sant Jordi away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poblense attack 2.31 + CE Sant Jordi defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.96

CE Sant Jordi attack 0.60 + Poblense defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Poblense scores more
85%
level
10%
CE Sant Jordi scores more
4%

Poblense at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Poblense 8–0 CE Sant Jordi

Poblense beat CE Sant Jordi 8-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla in Mallorca.