CE Sant Jordi 2–2 Poblense: Result & Stats

CE Sant Jordi

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Poblense

4/23/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 30Camp de Futbol Sant Jordi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CE Sant Jordi16%

×Draw20%

Poblense64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CE Sant JordiExpected goals in this matchPoblense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

2.15

CE Sant Jordi

0.96

Poblense

2.15

Poblense creates 124% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

1.20

creates per match

1.63

2.67

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

CE Sant Jordi

1.20

Poblense

1.63

allows per match

CE Sant Jordi

2.67

Poblense

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Poblense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CE Sant Jordi ↓

Poblense →

0–04%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

CE Sant Jordi or draw

36%

CE Sant Jordi or Poblense

80%

Draw or Poblense

84%

Winning margin

CE Sant Jordi wins by 2+

Poblense wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

CE Sant Jordi 1+ goals

62%

CE Sant Jordi 2+ goals

25%

CE Sant Jordi 3+ goals

Poblense 1+ goals

88%

Poblense 2+ goals

63%

Poblense 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

CE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)

20%

Poblense (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CE Sant Jordi at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Poblense away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.72 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CE Sant Jordi attack 1.20 + Poblense defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.96

Poblense attack 1.63 + CE Sant Jordi defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

CE Sant Jordi scores more

16%

level

20%

Poblense scores more

64%

Poblense at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff