Pobla Mafumet 1–0 Girona II: Result & Stats

Pobla Mafumet

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Girona II

Joan Torrents 31'

10/23/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 7Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Pobla Mafumet38%

×Draw29%

Girona II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pobla MafumetExpected goals in this matchGirona II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.02

Pobla Mafumet

1.14

Girona II

1.02

Pobla Mafumet creates 12% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 78 away

1.36

creates per match

1.23

0.81

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Pobla Mafumet

1.36

Girona II

1.23

allows per match

Pobla Mafumet

0.81

Girona II

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Girona II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobla Mafumet ↓

Girona II →

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Pobla Mafumet or draw

68%

Pobla Mafumet or Girona II

71%

Draw or Girona II

62%

Winning margin

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

16%

Girona II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

68%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

32%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

11%

Girona II 1+ goals

64%

Girona II 2+ goals

27%

Girona II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

54%

Girona II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pobla Mafumet at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.81 · 77 matches

Girona II away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.36 + Girona II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.14

Girona II attack 1.23 + Pobla Mafumet defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pobla Mafumet scores more

38%

level

29%

Girona II scores more

32%

Pobla Mafumet at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pobla Mafumet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Joan Torrents

37'

Marc Doménech← K. LKoucha

46'

Sarkodie Dapaah← Oscar Ureña

46'

Martí Camps← Joel Roca

46'

D. Camara← Luis Morcillo

66'

Lorca← Iván Amoedo

76'

Danilo Luís← Fernando Torre

76'

Eduardo Taboada← Joan Torrents

82'

Marc Fuentes← Juan Arango

88'

Sergi Quirós← Hamza Bellari

Pobla

Girona

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Torrents

▼

Bellari

Manager: Adolfo Baines

66'▲Lorca←▼Iván Amoedo

76'▲Danilo Luís←▼Fernando Torre

76'▲Eduardo Taboada←▼Joan Torrents

88'▲Sergi Quirós←▼Hamza Bellari

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

LorcaLuísTaboadaQuirós

Manager: Axel Vizuete

37'▲Marc Doménech←▼K. LKoucha

46'▲Sarkodie Dapaah←▼Oscar Ureña

46'▲Martí Camps←▼Joel Roca

46'▲D. Camara←▼Luis Morcillo

82'▲Marc Fuentes←▼Juan Arango

Girona II substitutes

DoménechDapaahCampsCamaraFuentes

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Pobla Mafumet 1–0 Girona II

Pobla Mafumet beat Girona II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 23, 2022.

Goals: Joan Torrents (31').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet in La Pobla de Mafumet.

Pobla Mafumet vs Girona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Pobla Mafumet 1–0 Girona II